Economics textbooks insist that stock prices reflect the future stream of a company’s profits on any given day. For all the brainpower devoted to these forecasts, however, they are essentially rough estimates of what may happen over the next twelve months and wild guesses about anything after that.

Trump has argued that foreign nations would pay his tariffs, but in practice it's American importers who suddenly faced new charges at customs. Those distributors, wholesalers and retailers have been hesitant to pass on the full cost to inflation-weary shoppers.

Americans are still hoping for a possible stimulus check in 2025. A newly proposed bill sending taxpayers rebates from tariffs could do just that.